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Climate Change Knowledge in a Nutshell
of the PIK Potsdam
and its
Contradiction
by
Dipl. Biol. Ernst-Georg Beck

PIK
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Contradiction by Ernst-Georg Beck
May 8, 2008

1. Human activities have produced atmospheric greenhouse gas levels that considerably transcend the natural concentrations of the last several million years. In particular, the CO2 concentration has risen from about 280 ppm in the year 1750 to about 380 ppm today. This statement is erroneous and contradicted [1]. During the last 200 years the atmospheric CO2 concentration was at least as high as today at three different times, most recently from 1925 through 1950. The average CO2 concentration in the 19th century was 321 ppm, not 280. An additional greenhouse effect as postulated is purely speculative and does not exist at the moment. Within the last 10 years global temperature was falling and CO2 was rising [2].
2. If “business as usual” continues, the world could heat up by about 5 °C till 2100. This is roughly the natural temperature difference between an ice age and a warm stage of our planet. Thus humanity would create a “fire age” unprecedented in the last several million years. The combination of civilisation and climate (weather) is a political construction and non- scientific [7]. The statement „could“ shows: they do not know. Because the weather is not under control we cannot calculate it within a projected time (climate). Warm eras come and go repeatedly, the last one happened between 1920 and 1940.
3. As a consequence, global sea level would rise by 30-50 m in the long run, and the oceans would turn sour through an average pH value drop from 8.2 to 7.7. At the moment there is no artificial rise of the sea level.[3] Such statements are based on erroneous and speculative statements of the IPCC. A pH-range of sea water of 8,2-7,7 is a normal range and was still measured during the warm period since 1920 and 1930 [4]. A pH higher than 7 is still alkaline.
4. In addition, unabated climate change could flip  a number of “tipping elements” in the planetary machinery (like the Amazon rainforest, El Nino, or the Indian monsoon) into a different state and trigger, in the worst case, a “runaway greenhouse dynamics” through positive feedbacks and teleconnections. Since millions of years climate change was unabated and was following according to astrophysical cycles. The term „tipping element“ suggests climate as a manageable machine but is defined artificially [7]. In fact the climate system is largely not understood. A weather forecast is only reliable within about 3 days. All attempts to reduce CO2 failed within the last 20 years. CO2 is rising -temperature has been falling for the last 10 years, the antarctic oceans get colder, polar ice caps grow.
5. There is a good chance to avoid such dangerous climate change if the anthropogenic warming is limited to 2 °C. This means  - above all – that atmospheric greenhouse has concentrations must be confined, in the long term,  to values below 400 ppm C02 equivalence. Pronouncing the ability to limit the global temperature is science fiction. [7]  A rise of 2°C corresponds to the comfortable climate of the city of Rome (Italy) compared to Central Europe. The run for holidays in Italy is as high as in former years. Dangerous diseases are not known from tourists since the last 50 years. In contrast people feel good when they return home.
6. This, in turn, requires to reduce industrial greenhouse gas emissions by about 1% per annum throughout this century. Recent socioeconomic analyses, taking technological and institutional innovation into full account, indicate that a reduction would delay global welfare growth till 2100 by just three months. This statement is based on a wrong radiation forcing of greenhouse gases, exaggerated by at least factor 4. A reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by 1% means 26GT/year instead of about 29 GT CO2/year (= 3% of the whole natural CO2 emissions). The 26,7% are still negligible compared to the natural emissions of oceans and biomass. Hundreds of millions of Euros from the tax payers are spent for the sake of a claimed limiting of temperatures which is still only a hypothetical option if not disproved already.
7. The confinement of global warming to 2 °C and the adaptation to the residual, significant impacts nevertheless asks for a re-invention of modern society that especially defines urbanity and rurality in novel ways.
The „residual“ is known as the climate change, that brought the Medieval Warmth and the Little Ice Age in the 17th century. At the moment this “residual” cools the oceans and poles again and will bring us a new little ice age. [5].A re-invention of the social and cultural life is nothing else than a political revolution towards a new dictatorship („carbon dictatorship”) as the Czech president Klaus has described [6].
Original of "Climate Change Knowledge in a Nutshell of the PIK Potsdam":
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/infodesk/climate-change-knowledge-in-a-nutshell/view?set_language=en

Literatur:

[1] „180 Years of atmospheric CO2  Gas Analysis by Chemical Methods”;

ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT VOLUME 18 No. 2, 2007; Supporting website:

http://www.wasserplanet.becsoft.de/180CO2_supp.htm

[2] Letter to the IPCC dated 14-4-2008
http://www.ilovemycarbondioxide.com/letters/IPCC_letter_14April08.pdf

[3] N. A. Mörner; SEA LEVEL CHANGES: OBSERVATIONS VERSUS MODELS

http://gsa.confex.com/gsa/inqu/finalprogram/abstract_54461.htm

[4] Wattenberg, H., Die Deutsche Atlantische Expedition auf dem Forschungs- und Vermessungsschiff "Meteor"... 1925-1927. Wissenschaftliche Ergebnisse Band VIII; Das chemische Beobachtungsmaterial und seine Gewinnung, 1.Teil des chemischen Materials,

Verlag von GrWalter de Gruyter&CO, Berlin 1933

[5] Russian scientist predicts global cooling http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Science/2006/08/25/russian_scientist_predicts_global_cooling/7556/

[6] Vaclav Klaus: Blue Planet in Green Chains

http://www.amazon.de/Blauer-Planet-gr%C3%BCnen-Fesseln-bedroht/dp/3900812152

[7] Arthur Rorsch; CLIMATE SCIENCE AND THE PHLOGISTON THEORY

http://www.ilovemycarbondioxide.com/pdf/09_Rorsch.pdf

 

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